People left seriously injured after Glenswilly crash

first_imgA number of people are understood to have been injured following a crash in Glenswilly this evening.The crash happened in the townland of Breenagh shortly before 8pm.It is believed the driver’s car struck a bridge and no other car was involved in the crash. A number of ambulances attended the scene and took at least two people to Letterkenny University Hospital.Two of the casualties are women.It is understood some of the injuries are serious but not life-threatening.People left seriously injured after Glenswilly crash was last modified: June 1st, 2019 by Staff WriterShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window)last_img read more

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Remembering Shankar Dayal Sharma, the President of India who believed in shaming offenders with acts of kindness

first_imgShankar Dayal Sharma was the ninth president of the country, serving from 1992 to 1997.He was appointed the governor of Andhra Pradesh in 1984. After elections in Punjab, in the wake of the Longowal-Rajiv accord between the prime minister and the Akali Dal president, Sharma was made the governor of Punjab in 1985.He then became the eighth vice-president of India and ex-officio Chairman of Rajya Sabha from September 3, 1987, till he assumed the office of the president in 1992. He served in this vaunted position till 1997.Remembering Shri Shankar Dayal Sharma ji, Former President of India on his punyatithi. A freedom fighter and an able administrator, who had served the nation with distinction. pic.twitter.com/zgj48Hw7za VicePresidentOfIndia (@VPSecretariat) December 26, 2018Shankar Dayal Sharma’s student life1. He combined his love for study with sports and politics from his student days in Allahabad.2. A good athlete, a cross-country runner, and a champion swimmer, he flirted with journalism in his student days and jumped into politics during the tumultuous days of the Quit India movement.3. Sharma pursued his higher education at Agra and Lucknow universities. After earning a doctorate in law at the University of Cambridge, he attended Lincoln’s Inn in London and Harvard University.4. Sharma was awarded the Chakravarti gold medal for social service by Lucknow University.5. In 1940, he began his legal practice in Lucknow and soon after joined the Indian National Congress. Sharma’s involvement in the national movement for independence led to his arrest, and he was imprisoned for eight months.Various positions held by Shankar Dayal SharmaadvertisementSharma served as the president of the Bhopal State Congress Committee (1950-52) and chief minister of Bhopal (1952-56)From 1956 to 1971, he was a member of the Madhya Pradesh legislative assemblySharma made his debut in national politics in 1971 when he was elected to the Lok SabhaIn 1972, he was elected president of the Congress party and served in that position for two years. He was the minister of communications (1974-77) in the Congress party government now led by Sonia GandhiShankar Dayal Sharma, a lawyer by profession, made significant contributions as President of India upholding the rule of law. Today, we honour his contributions as President, Vice-President, and as a Union minister. pic.twitter.com/YtG3uURiQL Congress (@INCIndia) December 26, 2018Sharma was a sentimental public leader who sometimes broke down in Parliament before unruly lawmakers. He once said he believed in retaliating by shaming offenders with acts of kindness.In 1990, while he was vice president and was presiding over the upper house of Parliament at time of turmoil, he broke into tears and left the hall, saying that he could not be a party to “the murder of democracy.”Shankar Dayal Sharma died on December 26, 1999, in a hospital in New Delhi. He was 81.Also read | Do you know the salary of the President of India?Interested in General Knowledge and Current Affairs? Click here to know what is happening around the world with our G.K. and Current Affairs section.To get more updates on Current Affairs, send in your query by mail to education.intoday@gmail.comlast_img read more

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a month agoFiorentina boss Montella insists no regrets over his time with AC Milan

first_imgAbout the authorCarlos VolcanoShare the loveHave your say Fiorentina boss Montella insists no regrets over his time with AC Milanby Carlos Volcanoa month agoSend to a friendShare the loveFiorentina boss Vincenzo Montella has no regrets over his time with AC Milan.The Viola meet Milan later tonight.“It was a fantastic experience, we won a trophy, which some people conveniently forget,” said Montella, referring to the Italian Super Cup against Juventus.“We didn’t purchase practically any players and still qualified for Europe, which hadn’t happened for a few years. I don’t consider that a negative time at all.“When I was at Milan, Suso, Patrick Cutrone and Davide Calabria were set to be sold. I think we did good work with homegrown talents like Manuel Locatelli and Gianluigi Donnarumma.” last_img read more

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John Calipari Brought His Daughter To The NBA All-Star Game, And She Is Having A Blast Photobombing Him

first_imgJohn Calipari's daughter takes secret picture of his at All-Star Game.Kentucky head coach John Calipari, of course, is on-hand at the NBA All-Star Game tonight to cheer on a few of his former players. But it looks like he’s also brought his daughter Erin along for the experience. She seems to be having a grand old time too, for other reasons than just the game.Calipari, who is clearly a bit bored, claims that she’s been photobombing her father all day. The irony? She’s worried about embarrassing him.W/ @UKCoachCalipari standing far enough away that I don’t have to talk to anyone but close enough that he can’t forget I’m here and leave me— Dr.SicilianoCalipari (@TheErinCalipari) February 15, 2015Every once in awhile he’ll introduce me to someone and then wait to see what I say. Pretty sure he’s thinking “you better not embarrass me”— Dr.SicilianoCalipari (@TheErinCalipari) February 15, 2015If you’ve taken any selfies with @UKCoachCalipari today better check the background. Yup.That’s me making that weird face. You’re welcome— Dr.SicilianoCalipari (@TheErinCalipari) February 15, 2015You think I’m kidding. I have this down to a science. About 6ft away is perfect. pic.twitter.com/hb8fzy0CjQ— Dr.SicilianoCalipari (@TheErinCalipari) February 15, 2015We can’t wait to see if any of these supposed photos pop up. Most people never get a chance to get the best of Coach Cal.last_img read more

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Video: Duke’s Grayson Allen Appeared To Intentionally Trip Louisville’s Raymond Spalding

first_imgGrayson Allen on the floor against Rhode Island.PITTSBURGH, PA – MARCH 17: Grayson Allen #3 of the Duke Blue Devils looks on against the Rhode Island Rams during the second half in the second round of the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at PPG PAINTS Arena on March 17, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)Duke and Louisville are locked into a tight battle at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Blue Devils led by as many as 14 but now trail late in the contest.During the second half, Duke’s Grayson Allen drove to the basket and was knocked down. While he was on the ground, he appeared to intentionally trip Louisville’s Raymond Spalding, who had corralled the ball and was dribbling up court.yep, that’s a trip by Grayson Allen … https://t.co/hAfZbZaFGb— Ryan Fagan (@ryanfagan) February 9, 2016Definitely looks like he meant to do that.last_img read more

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Grand Final for Festival Song July 15

first_imgThe grand final of the Jamaica Festival Song Competition will be held on Sunday, July 15 at the Ranny Williams Entertainment Centre on Hope Road in Kingston, beginning at 6:00 p.m.It will be the first event for the 56th anniversary of Jamaica’s Emancipation and Independence celebrations, being held under the theme ‘Jamaica 56 – One Love…One Family’.The event, which is free to the public, will be streamed live across three platforms – the Jamaica Cultural Development Commission (JCDC) website, Facebook and YouTube.Head of Marketing and Public Relations of the JCDC, Andrew Clunis, told JIS News that the Festival Song winner will be chosen by a panel of seven judges who are knowledgeable about the music industry and the festival product.“Those judges will deliberate about the criteria given to them to select a winner,” he said, adding that much emphasis will be placed on the quality of the song. Mr. Clunis pointed out that the writer of the song will receive a special prize.Persons who submitted entries to the competition were exposed to workshops to improve their stagecraft, writing of lyrics, composition of melodies as well as learning the basics in music theory.Meanwhile, Mr. Clunis is calling on Jamaicans to come out and support their favourite performer.“It is going to be a great evening of entertainment. We might think it is down to the contestants, but we have done a bit more and we are offering the pubic a bit more in terms of entertainment,” he said.Performers at the event will include guest artiste Leroy Sibbles, past Festival Song winners Roy Rayon and Tinga Stewart, and the ASHE ensemble.“We will be bringing to the audience all that is Festival and all that is celebratory about our Independence in their presentations,” he added.Explaining why the final will take place two weeks before the Independence celebrations, he said the idea is to allow the public to become familiar with the winning song.“In order for us to have that song that we are familiar with and to sing along, we need to give time, and so when we select the winning song on Sunday, it will be for us to say to Jamaica, here is your Festival song,” he said, adding that it will be on every radio station in Jamaica and overseas.“Come Independence, it will be on everybody’s lips and everybody will be dancing,” he said.The inaugural Festival Song Competition was held in 1966, with the group Toots and the Maytals copping the honours with their seminal composition titled – ‘Bam Bam’.last_img read more

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Alberta eyes tar sands boom

first_imgAPTN National NewsOne of the world’s largest oil companies says they are running out of oil.In its annual financial report, energy giant Exxon Mobil says that for every 100 barrels of oil it has in reserves, it can only replace 95.The Alberta government sees that as its ace in the hole.APTN National News reporter Noemi LoPinto has more.last_img

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Excise dept told to explore possibility of earning revenue from confiscated liquor

first_imgNew Delhi: In a Law and Order meeting on the theme “General Election 2019 preparedness”, the Excise Department was told to explore the possibility of earning revenue from confiscated liquor. In the meeting, the city police were told to closely monitor the social media till the completion of the election. Highly placed sources told Millennium Post that the meeting was held at Raj Niwas on the last week of March. The timing was around 11:30 am under the chairmanship of LG Delhi. The meeting was attended by chief secretary rank officials, Delhi Police, the Excise Department, Divisional Commissioner. “In the meeting Excise Department has been told to explore the possibility of earning revenue from confiscated liquor in accordance with rules instead of destroying it, if found fit for human consumption,” sources said.The meeting was related to preparedness of Delhi Police including force management, coordination with police neighbouring states to check communal violence, terrorist activities, distribution of illicit liquor, cash & other narcotics drugs, security of VIPs/VVIPs, crime in border areas, sale of illegal arms, weapons, action against defacement of public property, vulnerability mapping of polling stations. At the start of meeting a Special CP from Delhi Police gave a power point presentation on the preparedness. The issues of deployment, mobility, the requirement of Central forces, coordination with neighbouring states and enforcement of Model Code of Conduct were discussed. Sources further said after deliberations, several decisions were taken in the meeting. Chief Secretary and Commissioner of Police will maintain constant liaison with CEO, Delhi to ensure strict enforcement of Model Code of Conduct and action against illicit cash, liquor and muscle-men. “Field supervision to be ensured by senior officers through surprise checks. It was informed that a Single Window System for permissions before conducting meetings, rallies etc exists in the office of every Returning Officer. The same facility is also available through an App called Suvidha. LG advised that the App should be publicized through police and Revenue Department,” sources said quoting the meeting points. According to Delhi Police data, this year 1,76,890 bottles seized by city police and excise Act cases till March was 1,549.last_img read more

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Sky in Germany has rolled out a major expansion to

first_imgSky in Germany has rolled out a major expansion to its Sky Anytime service, offering more content to stream on-demand through its Sky+HD receivers.Sky said that via web streaming, customers can now access up to six times more content than before, including recently released movies like Guardians of the Galaxy and series premieres of TV shows like the second season of True Detective, immediately after their US launch.Other content now available via on-demand includes entire past-seasons of shows like House of Cards and Game of Thrones, as well as documentaries, Sky Arts content, children’s programs and sports highlights.“By expanding the streaming function, we offer subscribers with Sky + receivers a lot more variety of programs on demand precisely where our content is most used: on TV,” said Peter Schulz, vice president of on-demand programming at Sky Germany.Customers can access the on-demand content by connecting their Sky+ receiver to the web via a network cable or a Sky WLAN module.last_img read more

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Click to enlarge Renewed Fiscal Crisis by Earl

first_img (Click to enlarge) Renewed Fiscal Crisis by Early September At present, the US Treasury is playing daily accounting games in order keep its borrowings—subject to the debt ceiling—from exceeding the ceiling. The July 3, 2013 Daily Treasury Statement showed those borrowings to be just $25 million shy of the roughly $16,999.421 billion ceiling. The US Treasury estimates that the ability to play games will end, and the debt limit will have to be raised, sometime early in September 2013. The long-postponed and unresolved budget-deficit conflicts within the Congress and with the White House are likely to surface anew at that time. What is being played out here is still part of the fiscal-crisis confrontation of July and August 2011, which almost collapsed the US dollar and brought about a downgrade in the sovereign credit rating of the United States. The issues never were resolved. They were put off until after the 2012 election, and other than for minimal sequestration, they remain in play, going into a post-Labor Day 2013 showdown. The global markets, which broke into brief but extreme turmoil with the unresolved crisis in 2011, await a resolution. The markets have been patient with the US dollar through the ensuing sequestration, and continued postponements of serious negotiations that have accompanied successive displays of the political inability of the US government to address its long-range solvency issues. Further efforts at delay and/or obfuscation not only should invite an intensifying crisis of global confidence in the US dollar, but also will invite a further downgrade to the sovereign credit rating of the United States. The crux of the dollar-debasement and ultimate, severe-inflation/hyperinflation issues indeed is this political inability of the United States to cover its long-range obligations, other than by printing the money it needs. Based on the US Treasury’s financial accounting of the federal government using generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the GAAP-based federal budget deficit was $6.6 trillion in fiscal-year 2012 (year ended September 30). Well beyond the simple cash-based deficit of $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2012, the GAAP-based annual deficits have been in the range of $4 to $5 trillion for the six years leading up to 2012. The largest difference here is that the GAAP numbers include annual deterioration in the net present value of unfunded liabilities for programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Those GAAP levels are not sustainable or containable. Beyond the likelihood that the economy is at the tipping point on taxes, where higher taxes actually would increase the deficit due to resulting slower economic growth, the government cannot raise taxes enough to cover the actual deficit in any given year. The annual shortfalls also are so large that every penny of government spending (including defense) could be cut to zero except for the social programs, and the fiscal circumstance still would be in deficit. The options open to those running the government are limited in terms of new taxes and have to include significant spending cuts and restructurings of Social Security, Medicare, etc., so that those programs are solvent over the long haul. Such actions are a political impossibility at the moment. Given continued political contentiousness and the use of overly optimistic economic assumptions to help ten-year budget projections along, little but gimmicked numbers and further smoke and mirrors are likely to come out of pending negotiations or confrontations. Economic Plunge and Recovery versus Plunge and Stagnation The official version of recent economy activity is that a deep recession began in December 2007, hit bottom in June 2009, and that business activity has been in recovery since. That pattern is reflected in the accompany graph of headline, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP). The economy regained its pre-recession high in fourth-quarter 2011 and has been expanding ever since. Unfortunately, no other major economic series has shown the full and expanded recovery suggested by GDP reporting. Those “errant” series include payroll employment, industrial production, consumer confidence, and housing starts, among others. (Click to enlarge) Other Factors Impacting the US Dollar, Inflation, and Precious Metals Highlighted here have been several issues where recent shifts in market sentiment have neutralized or reversed the impact or otherwise had been significant, negative elements for the outlook of the US dollar, and supportive elements of the outlook for domestic inflation and the prices of gold and silver. Market sentiments should shift again, both as the economy shows an intensifying downturn and as the clock runs out on fiscal-crisis delaying tactics. A new factor—not yet widely anticipated in the markets—is that still-developing political scandals tied to the Obama administration could threaten global perceptions of political stability in the United States, placing significant downside pressure on the value of the US currency. The popular press generally has been highly sympathetic to the political needs of the administration, so increasingly negative press in these areas suggests that recognition of the “scandals” has gained some momentum. In the event that a Watergate-type circumstance evolves from the current hubbub of touted misdeeds, it could become a seriously negative factor for the US dollar. After Nixon floated the US dollar in March 1973, the Watergate scandal began to break open with Congressional hearings. Despite other turmoil of the time, including an Arab-Israeli war and an Arab oil embargo, the day-to-day developments in the Watergate scandal dominated day-to-day trading in the US currency. When the US dollar again comes under heavy selling pressure, oil prices will spike anew, separate from the effects of political crises in the Middle East. The inflation, so driven, should reflect dollar weakness from Federal Reserve policies that Mr. Bernanke will find he cannot escape, and from dollar weakness reflecting the inability of the US government to address its long-term sovereign-solvency issues. Ongoing economic weakness will exacerbate the dollar-negative circumstances, intensifying the problems with Fed easing and US fiscal deterioration. The inflation will be driven by US dollar weakness, not by strong domestic demand for goods and services. As fundamental dollar selling kicks in, full-fledged dollar dumping along with heavy sales of dollar-denominated paper assets are likely to unfold. Preceding, or coincident with that, the global reserve status of the US dollar should be challenged. As the rest of the world moves out of the dollar, domestic confidence in the US currency will falter as well, eventually fueling severe domestic inflation, and setting the early base of a likely hyperinflation. Such an environment is one for which physical gold and silver would serve as primary hedges against the ultimate debasement of, and loss of purchasing power in the US dollar. Economist Walter J. “John” Williams publishes www.shadowstats.com. ShadowStats specializes in assessing the reliability of government economic data and in looking at alternative economic measures from the standpoint of common experience, net of heavily politicized methodological changes of recent decades (inflation, unemployment and GDP). Other analyses include estimates of ongoing money supply M3, which the Fed ceased publication in 2006, or less-commonly followed series such as the federal government’s GAAP-based financial statements. Articles related to the accompanying comments on the understatement of official inflation and federal-deficit reality, and an article outlining risks of a US hyperinflation, are available to the public in the upper right-hand column of the ShadowStats home page. (Click to enlarge) Closer to common experience, there never was a recovery following the economic downturn that began in 2006 and collapsed into 2008 and 2009. What followed was a protracted period of business stagnation that began to turn down anew in second- and third-quarter 2012. The “recovery” seen in headline GDP reporting was a statistical illusion generated by the use of understated inflation in calculating the inflation-adjusted series. During the last three decades, a number of methodological changes were made to inflation-estimation techniques that have had the effect of artificially reducing annual inflation rates. Of particular relevance to GDP estimation has been the introduction of hedonic quality adjustments, which adjust inflation rates for the effects of nebulous quality changes. These changes—ranging from new features with computers and washing machines to the use of colored pictures in college textbooks—cannot be measured directly, only estimated by econometric models, with the usual effect of reducing related inflation. The lower the inflation rate that is used in adjusting a series, such as GDP, for inflation impact, the stronger will be the resulting inflation-adjusted growth. When the US first used this process in its GDP reporting, countries such as Japan and Germany did not follow. Hence, stronger relative US versus Japanese GDP growth at the time reflected the difference of use in inflation gimmicks, more so than actual differences in economic activity. The hedonic changes used in US GDP estimates never have been applied consistently and do not reflect common experience. The following graph of corrected real GDP is adjusted for the removal of roughly two percentage points of aggregate, hedonically understated annual inflation. It shows a pattern of economic plunge and stagnation, as opposed to the official pattern of plunge and recovery. Our guest contributor today needs no introduction, but I’ll give him one anyway. John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics (often referred to as “ShadowStats”), has been debunking federal government statistics for years. John adjusts government economic data to be more honest and realistic, and publishes the results on his website. Among other statistics, John has developed his own inflation, unemployment, and GDP measurements that aim to more accurately describe reality than the government’s own numbers. In some cases, the government has made his job easy—John simply uses the government’s own calculations from many years ago, before they were massaged, revised, and “improved” to the point that they’re hardly recognizable. For others, he strips out distortions and adjusts the statistics to more truthfully describe the real world. For instance, I’d bet that your grocery bill would agree that ShadowStats’ inflation rate of 9% is much closer to reality than the government’s own calculation of 1.4%. To whet your appetite, I grabbed two more of the more stunning stats from John’s piece below: The government reports its 2012 deficit as $1.1 trillion. If you calculate the deficit using generally accepted accounting principles, as publicly traded companies in the US are required to, the deficit would be $6.6 trillion. So far in 2013, the Federal Reserve purchased 90.5% of the US government’s net issuance of debt. The article is equal parts eye opening and sobering. Before moving on to the article, however, a brief announcement. A Casey phyle is starting up in Charlotte, NC. If anyone reading is interested in joining it, please drop an email to phyle@caseyresearch.com to learn more. I’ll keep it short today by signing off here, as I’m still putting the final touches on this month’s The Casey Report, due out on Thursday. It’s going to be a good one, as we’re analyzing when nasty inflation might return to the US. If you’re not a subscriber already, check it out—it’s absolutely risk-free. See you next week. Dan Steinhart, Managing Editor of The Casey Report Market Shocks Ahead Should be Positive for Gold, Negative for the US Dollar By John Williams, Founder, ShadowStats.com Nothing is normal: not the economy, not the financial system, not the financial markets and not the political system. The financial system still remains in the throes and aftershocks of the 2008 panic. A number of underlying problems of that time, tied to the risks of a near-systemic collapse and the related, extreme economic downturn, were pushed into the future—not resolved—by the extraordinary liquidity and systemic-intervention actions taken by the Federal Reserve and federal government. Further panic is possible, and severe US dollar debasement and inflation remain inevitable. Nonetheless, several major misperceptions appear to have developed in the last month or two concerning an end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, the level of crisis posed by US fiscal imbalances, and an unfolding recovery in the US economy. Contrary to currently hyped expectations in the popular financial media, chances are negligible for any serious, near-term reduction in the Federal Reserve’s purchases of US Treasury securities. The Fed has locked itself into ongoing quantitative easing, with fair prospects of expanded, not reduced accommodation in the year ahead. Separately, the long-term solvency issues of the United States should return to the center of attention for the global financial markets by early September 2013. At present, prospects of the US government meaningfully addressing its extreme fiscal imbalances are nonexistent. Exacerbating financial-system solvency concerns for the Fed and intensifying US fiscal instabilities, the US economy never recovered from its 2008 plunge, and now it is slowing anew. Increasing recognition of these factors, complicated by the potential of a domestic political scandal taking on Watergate-style status, promise difficult times ahead for the US dollar, with resulting domestic inflation problems and significant upside pressure on the prices of gold and silver. Federal Reserve’s Primary Function Is to Preserve Banking-System Solvency Despite a Congressional mandate that the Federal Reserve pursue policies to foster sustainable US economic growth in an environment of contained inflation, those issues are secondary to the Federal Reserve’s primary mission, which is to preserve the stability of the banking system. While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has acknowledged that there is little the Fed can do at present to boost economic activity, the weak economy remains the foil for banking-system difficulties, serving as justification for more easing by the Fed. Accordingly, since the breaking of 2008 crisis, the Fed’s accommodation, liquidity actions, and direct systemic interventions have been aimed at maintaining the stability and liquidity of the banking and financial-market systems. As bank bailouts became politically unpopular, the Fed increasingly used the weakness in the economy as political cover for its systemic-liquidity actions. In response to critics of excessive accommodation, the US central bank recently put forth several rounds of jawboning on exiting quantitative easing, in an effort to quell inflation fears. Those efforts have been a factor in recent gold selling. Comments from the June 19 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Mr. Bernanke’s subsequent press conference were clear but largely ignored by the markets. The shutdown of quantitative easing—specifically the bond buying of QE3—would not happen until such time as the economy had recovered in line with the relatively rosy economic projections of the Fed. As the stock market began to sell off in response to the Fed chairman’s initial press-conference comments, he sputtered something along the lines of, “No, you don’t understand me. If the economy is weaker, we’ll have to increase the easing.” The economy is going to be weaker; banking problems will persist, and the Fed will continue to ease. Nonetheless, the consensus perception appears to be that QE3 will be gone by the middle of 2014, despite the stated economic preconditions. As will be discussed, though, intensifying economic deterioration should become obvious to the markets in the next several months, and that should help to shift perceptions. The harsh reality remains that the Fed is locked into its extraordinary easing by ongoing solvency issues in the banking system (only hinted at in Bernanke’s post-FOMC press conference), and by the political cover provided by a weakening economy. In the latest version of quantitative easing (QE3), the Fed has been buying US Treasury securities at a pace that is suggestive of fears that the US government otherwise might have some trouble in selling its debt. Through July 3, 2013 and since the expansion of QE3 at the beginning of 2013, the Fed’s net purchases of Treasury securities has absorbed 90.5% of the coincident net issuance of gross federal debt. That circumstance is exacerbated somewhat by gross federal debt currently being contained at its official debt ceiling. Still, in the pre-crisis environment of 2008, the St. Louis Fed’s measure of the monetary base (bank reserves plus cash in circulation) was holding around $850 billion, with roughly $40 billion in bank reserves. As a result of intervening Fed actions, today’s monetary base is around $3.2 trillion, with more than $2.0 trillion in bank reserves (primarily excess reserves). Under normal conditions, the money supply would expand based on the increase in bank reserves, but banks have not been lending normally into the regular flow of commerce, due largely to their impaired balance sheets. While there has been no significant flow-through to the broad money supply from the expanded monetary base, there still appears to have been impact. As shown in the accompanying graph, there is some correlation between annual growth in the St. Louis Fed’s monetary base estimate and annual growth in M3, as measured by the ShadowStats-Ongoing M3 Estimate. The correlations between the growth rates are 58.1% for M3, 39.9% for M2, and 36.7% for M1, all on a coincident basis versus growth in the monetary base. The June 2013 annual growth estimates are based on four weeks of data. The ShadowStats contention, again, remains that the Fed’s easing activity has been aimed primarily at supporting banking-system solvency and liquidity, not at propping the economy. When the Fed boosts its easing but money growth slows, as seen at present, there is a suggestion of mounting financial stress within the banking system. Further, underlying US economic reality is weak enough to challenge domestic banking stress tests. In this environment, the Fed most likely will have to continue to provide banking-system liquidity, while again, still taking political cover for its accommodation activity from the weakening economy. (Click to enlarge) Not only do a number of large, consumer-oriented companies find that the “corrected” pattern of activity more closely resembles their business activity, but this same pattern also is reflected in underlying fundamentals that drive broad activity, such as household income. The primary issues facing the economy are structural liquidity problems for the consumer, who generates more than 70% of GDP activity. Without real income growth, the consumer cannot sustain growth in real consumption, except for the possible use of short-lived credit expansion. Yet, credit availability has been limited. Without credit expansion (all growth in post-debt-crisis consumer credit outstanding remains in federally owned student loans), the consumer is unable to borrow in order to cover the shortfall in living standards. The next graph shows median household income through May 2013, deflated by the CPI-U (data courtesy of Sentier Research). Monthly median household income plunged as the economy purportedly began its strong recovery in June 2009. Further, in the last two years, income has been bottom-bouncing near its cycle low, consistent with the “corrected” GDP series. The numbers here are based on monthly surveying by the US Census Bureau. So long as consumer liquidity remains constrained, the economy has not and cannot recover. Accordingly, any near-term hype from an occasional “good” economic statistic most likely is no more than hype. Economic reality will continue to surprise on the downside, and that is a negative for the US dollar, as well as for budget-deficit and Treasury-funding projections. The US economic weakness is long-term and structural, and increasing global recognition of that in the months ahead will contribute to eventual pummeling of the US dollar in the global markets.last_img read more

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